One of my latest projects has been indexing baptisms at Elkesem estate from 1799-1875. While tedious, this will provide me with a good understanding of who was living at what farm, who was who’s neighbour/landlord, and what families were “originally” there as opposed to who moved in later. Prior to the 1850’s, laws were in place that made it very difficult for peasants to move from estate to estate. It is a rare occasion or circumstance when they did.
So, to see a baptism for a family name as early as 1834-36 (in Kurzeme) at a certain estate likely means that the original patriarch who was given the name during the naming process “originated” there. And since surnames did not exist prior to that… you could say the surname “originated” there. From there you can look at the parents of the child being baptised, and what farm they lived on, and hopefully identify the same family pre-surnames but other, earlier baptisms at the same farms by couples with the same first names.
I may use this same method for Lieldzelda estate, to try and piece together my Grinbergs-Akerfelds family since the Embute church books from 1853-1870 are missing, as well as the Lieldzelda revision lists.